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Bitcoin. My Generation

When I first got into real estate in New York City, I heard many, many stories and have personally met people who “bought a building for $1” back in the 1980’s and even still severely underpriced NYC real estate throughout the 1990’s. How incredibly ridiculous does it sound today, to buy an entire building in the East Village for one dollar and having everyone you know telling you how “out of your mind” you were. Believe it or not, that was the situation back then. Were these people out of their mind? Are us Bitcoiners out of our minds? Here is the situation today. Those same NY buildings are easily selling for prices between $6 and $20 million dollars. That’s insane yet that’s the reality. If you told someone in 1985 that the townhouse you bought for a dollar was going to be worth 12 million in 30 years, you’d have endured absolute ridicule.  Yes, you were right. A 13 room apartment in The Dakota off Central Park West was selling for around 100k in the 1970s. Central Park was a disaster, the city was teetering on bankruptcy and everyone thought you were clinically insane for buying it. I met a woman who purchased one and I believe she it sold for about 25 million dollars.

Were these pioneers really crazy? I don’t think so. In fact anyone who is in their 20s or 30s really has almost a zero percent chance of ever seeing an opportunity like this in their lifetime.  This was my biggest complaint through most of my 20’s. When I was born! I missed all the best opportunities. I was barely old enough to open a brokerage account when the 1990s dot com and tech bull markets were in full swing. Yes, that did not end well for most but depending on how you played it, you could have made a killing. Even the 30+ year unstoppable bull market in bonds would have made a conservative portfolio a “boat load” of money over time. These sweet pitches don’t come around all that often. Yet, at the time they aren’t always viewed that way. These opportunities are few and far between. That brings us to today.

Where is our opportunity? Where is the “home run” investment of my generation? Well, I would say the only chance we really have is Bitcoin. Notice I am purposefully singling out Bitcoin and not referring to “crypto currencies” or “smart contract platforms” or ICOs, Tokens, altcoins or anything other than…., the Big…. Bad….. Bitcoin.

You think you missed your chance?  You want to invest in “the next Bitcoin” or some type of “better Bitcoin.”  It’s a futile effort and yes it can be fun and sometimes lucrative to take a trip to the “shitcoin casino.”  There’s nothing wrong with that. But let’s be real here. There is no better Bitcoin and I really doubt there is ever going to be a “better Bitcoin” in our lifetimes. Maybe ever, for that matter.  Bitcoin will continue to improve, the Bitcoin network is functioning better than ever and is always where the major innovations have and will continue to come from. The brightest and smartest people in the world are working on Bitcoin.  

The CME adding futures contracts for Bitcoin was the first new “commodity” product added since Gold was added in 1972. You could argue that CME has added currencies over the years but I don’t really think Bitcoin falls completely in that currency category. I know for me personally, it’s only really a store of value at this point with slightly more usability and decent liquidity should I need it. It’s remarkably similar to gold except gold is incredibly difficult to sell in a pinch. Either way, bottom line, CME futures is a big deal and an important step forward in integrating Bitcoin into the fabric of our current financial system.  This is clearly here to stay and finding its way into currently regulated markets. With these positive fundamentals, Bitcoin has all the characteristics and scarcity to make every single one of these outlandish price predictions a reality. I’m talking about the 250k predictions all the way to the million dollar prediction. This is not only completely possible but in my opinion also inevitable and most likely the “home run” investment of “my generation.”

We just hit a milestone the other day and officially passed the 17 million Bitcoin total supply number.  Sounds like a lot? It’s an incredibly finite amount of supply and the upside potential is actually unlimited.  There will only be 21 million Bitcoins EVER and they will not all be in circulation until the year 2140. If you are familiar with the Bitcoin halving schedule you know that every 4 years the mining reward is cut in half. The current reward is 12.5 BTC every block (or approximately 10 minutes). The deflationary aspects of where Bitcoin is currently at and what lies ahead is incredibly strong and support much higher prices.  The next having is going to happen around May of 2020 and from that point forward you’re looking at a 6.25 BTC mining subsidy. It’s only going down.

Will the world run out of Bitcoin? Absolutely not because it’s divisible to 8 decimal places.  This means there are 100,000,000 units (referred to as Satoshi’s) in just 1 Bitcoin.  In other words….. That’s a crap ton.

Furthermore there are wild estimates of how many Bitcoins are “lost” or unretrievable. There are estimates upwards and beyond 4 million Bitcoins that are completely gone forever.  You can then also add in Satoshi’s 1 million coins that have never been moved since he mined the first 50 in the Genesis block.     

If you are like me, then you feel like you’ve have been waiting for Bitcoin your entire life.  It rivals the Internet in terms of importance and advancement of our society. You can still buy 1 full Bitcoin for under $10,000.  You can dollar cost average in and acquire one over time. It really doesn’t matter how you get your hands on 1 full Bitcoin but that should be everyone’s goal who wants to participate in the best investment of “my generation.” Because that’s what it looks like this is.  Make no mistake about it, your kids will be using Bitcoin and it’s going to be a lot different than the Bitcoin of today. How long did it used to take to load one single web page? Am I that old? It would take you half a day to watch 1 movie. Do you remember those days?  Look where we are at now. The exact same process is happening and will continue to happen for Bitcoin over the years to come.

The debit cards are coming.  Slowly but surely, Coinbase is issuing debit cards to spend “crypto” in our daily lives. Which by the way, spending your precious Bitcoin is probably the dumbest thing you can do.  Unless it’s absolutely necessary to do so, why would anyone spend the currency that is appreciating in value if they had a choice? You don’t get travel miles with Bitcoin? You don’t get the paper trail for tax purposes like you do with traditional banking. You almost always are better off spending the dollars.  This runway for Bitcoin being spent with a Visa/Mastercard at merchant point of sale will have a positive multiplier effect for the fiat coming into the system. Yes, the Bitcoin being spent is then liquidated and the merchant receives payment in fiat. That in itself is not bullish for the price. But the fact that Bitcoin adoption, widespread use and the “hyper bitcoinization” has not even really gotten started should absorb (if there even is any) negative price effects of people spending it. This is going to be hardwired into our daily life and very, very simple to use. This is the “new money.” In fact, more and more merchants are going to actually want to be paid in Bitcoin and actually keep their Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin continues to outperform every other investment that you can compare it with, why wouldn’t everyone want to participate in it’s rapidly appreciating trajectory? My landlord would be a fool not to accept my rent payment in Bitcoin and I would be a fool to pay my rent with Bitcoin.

If you, or your business had the foresight to accept $100.00 in BTC, a few years ago and then just did nothing with it. You would be sitting on like $5,000 today plus all the forks, dividends and “free money airdrops” that came along the way. Yes, Bitcoin is actually a productive asset and if you are savvy, you can sometimes profit greatly from selling this garbage.  So a hundred bucks in 2013 is five grand today.……. and it’s only going to continue. If you were to accept $100 in Bitcoin today it would be equivalent to around $3,000 when the price gets to around $270,000. The only absolute 100% guarantee is that your dollar purchasing power will erode over time with cash that you are holding today. Quite the opposite with Bitcoin. If long term store of value and preservation of purchasing power is a primary financial objective (like it is for me) then you have to consider keeping most of your money in “the better money.” Which certainly appears to be Bitcoin.

It’s too expensive? “I want to wait until the price drops.” Don’t try and play guessing games with the price. The second best time to buy Bitcoin will always be today. Know what you are doing! You must be careful and take some time to learn how Bitcoin works. A lot of responsibility comes along with the financial sovereignty that Bitcoin brings. If you are careless, you will fall victim to the unknown black hole of unretrievable funds. So many scammers, so many ridiculous “schemes” and “things” people try to do with their Bitcoin to get more Bitcoin. Avoid all cloud mining, claims to get rich, lending scams or anything promising interest payments. Doing nothing but safely store your BTC, be in possession of your private keys and HODL Bitcoin.

That being said. This is it. This is the investment of “my generation” and truly a once in a lifetime opportunity.  I think everyone’s first goal should be to have 1 full Bitcoin and somewhat know how “it” works. If you have 21 Bitcoins, you effectively own 1/1,000,000th of the total supply.  THAT’S FUCKING RIDICULOUS! If you don’t see the potential here, I don’t know what to tell you. If it’s hard for you to buy Bitcoin here at these prices, then you’re going to lose your mind when we’re at $42,000 Bitcoin in a blink AND YOU STILL DON’T HAVE ANY.  Buying 1 full bitcoin anywhere below 10k, is a gift. Enjoy it now because there might only be a few days left.

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